alt.energy.renewable

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We will freely own that we have long held a skeptical view about the
possibilities for alternative fuels. While it may be true that the
market cures all, there are two key points to keep in mind, we think:

(1)There can be long, painful lags in the period of market adjustment
(in the case of energy issues, the efficient production and
distribution of alternative sources)

(2)While price may cure price, the sad fact is that the current price
level for hydrocarbons may not be ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH ENOUGH CURRENTLY
to generate the awaited flood of alternative fuels.

Indeed, we think that the second issue is the more intractable. For it
is not merely a question of price reaching a certain level, it is a
matter of price being SUSTAINED for a protracted period of time at
said level. It is this which is necessary to generate significant
investment and risk-taking in developing inevitably long-term
alternative energy projects, as well as building adequate
transportation and delivery systems. The problem with the achievement
of the long-term elevation in price is this: Saudi Arabia. The cunning
price manipulation at which the Saudis excel has successfully
prevented oil prices from reaching a SUSTAINED level sufficiently
elevated to render long-term alternative energy investment viable.
This continues to be the case. Western governments -- our own included
-- have been happy to take the path of least resistance. Thus, rather
than supply capital, favorable tax treatment, and supportive
legislation on an ASSURED and LONG-TERM basis, they have zigged and
zagged with every Saudi-influenced zig and zag. Plainly put, Saudi
savvy has trumped long-term thinking and the all-important FINANCING
of long-term alternative energy projects.

The course of significant alternative energy development consequently
rests, in large measure, on the continued skillfulness of Saudi moves
in the oil market. While the Saudis have, for the moment, concluded
that the current elevated price level for crude does not threaten
their dominant position or the unchallenged near-monopoly of
hydrocarbons, they can be expected to limit -- or, if they deem it
necessary, drive oil prices lower. We believe that the absence of any
countervailing consumer nation willingness to embark decisively on a
very costly real alternative energy program, and to meet falling
energy prices with indifference as they proceed with single-minded
determination to reduce the long-term upward pressure on hydrocarbon
fuel prices and their ongoing dependence on foreign oil sources, will
persist.

The imperative for change seems clear. There are the obvious issues of
dependence upon unreliable foreign sources for oil and the
desirability of preserving the planet's necessarily limited supply of
petroleum. There is the desirability of containing the long-term
upward trend in oil, gas, and coal prices -- a function of the
widening of the supply/demand gap due to the growing Americanization
of emerging economies in Asia. Finally there is the issue of global
warming and environmental degradation. We do not purport to have any
scientific knowledge in this matter. We do think we have some grasp of
the essentials of human nature. Humans are short-sighted, egocentric
creatures locked in a perpetual and insatiable quest for constant
short-term gratification. Any rational concerns about the entire human
race "being in this together" and the need for species unity in
confronting long-term threats to the environment in which we all live
finds adequate satisfaction in sanctimonious preachments and marginal
action.

In a more profound sense, forthcoming energy shortfalls, as well as
prospective water shortages and possible food shortages as well
suggest that human populations have grown too large. As long as the
mass of humanity was willing to accept its apparently ordained fate to
live the life of a beast of burden, the natural environment could
support populations of a certain size. The combination of vast
numerical increase along with the new demands of the masses in Asia
for an upwardly ramping lifestyle modelled on the American model of
limitless consumption is placing intolerable pressure upon the natural
environment,we believe.

Nature is a cruel mistress. She has very effective means of dealing
with populations which have grown too large and too demanding. We
devoutly hope that we are wrong, but we are inclined to believe that
severe punishment for our species will, in due course, be forthcoming.